Many parents hope that early immersion will give their kids a leg up for Mandarin study later. Some who are going along the early track and continuing through middle school are completely missing the boat when it comes to what has happened with leveling at high school and beyond.
Drop the entitlement. High schools and colleges all around America and beyond have already set their levels. If your kid makes it that far, s/he will have to take a test. If you make it through the middle school years with even a slight interest in continuing Mandarin studies, that's something.
But skills to test beyond Mandarin I? Yes, that's what I said, "Level One." Ask yourself if your kid would be able to test beyond Mandarin I, maybe even Mandarin II. Then how hard will he have to work to get through Level Three and then into AP, let alone endure AP Level Chinese in order to test with a 4 or 5 by the time s/he is ready to graduate high school...
In 2013, the people who administer the College Board AP Chinese test presented at Asia Society's NCLC and reported that most kids coming from non-heritage backgrounds, even those doing some type of immersion program, are only testing at 3 for the AP. I looked up their report in 2012, and it was indicating the same.
I listen to Mandarin radio out here in the Bay Area. There are Chinese school teachers who get on and discuss their programs in order to push things like their special AP prep classes. One of the things I've learned from these discussions is how a good number of families are getting their kids through AP as early as 9th grade. They want to get it over and done with; the kids test at 5; the family gets a break on college tuition. The kids can check off their high school credits and have more time for electives or to study for the SAT. What the kids "do" with their Mandarin later in life is up to them. And now, with much easier access to Taiwan and China, attending a camp to extend or brush up on skills is a much better time savings. If they want to do advanced seminar courses in college for Chinese literature or philosophy or a course in politics, then they will qualify and don't have to waste time trudging through the foundational pre-requisites.
This answers the question that many in the Bay Area have asked: "Where are all the Mandarin-speaking families sending their kids if they are not at the new immersion programs?" It's a mixed bag. I hear they're all in Cupertino. Some are doing immersion, but so many more are not. Mandarin radio is alive and well, but the businesses that advertise on it all give out "408" area codes, and "650" to a lesser extent. The thing is, what many of these families will not sacrifice is academic content in English. If that has gone out with the implementation of a dual immersion program, they will stick with the weekend or after school Chinese school model.
(San Francisco is a different story. The city is still majority Cantonese Chinese. While many of the new immigrants to the city are Mandarin-proficient because of the Mainland's education programs, these same people are still from Canton and therefore Cantonese-proficient. There is a small trickle of non-Cantonese new immigrants.)
Meanwhile, at high school and college, Chinese-proficient parents know that it's all about a test. What I have noticed, however, is that non-Chinese parents who are doing elementary immersion, they do not seem to realize the changes that happen at high school and beyond. And that there is no entitlement. Your kid either tests in or doesn't. Your kid either passes a benchmark, or doesn't. Your kid could easily never pass out of Mandarin II. And once your kid has tested at a "3" for AP, then what? Will s/he feel too discouraged to continue studies at college?
Then you have to ask whether or not you've built in enough of the "love" earlier on. Does your kid have enough of a sense of wonder and curiosity not to be discouraged by a test score?
Learning Mandarin may be a new enterprise in formal elementary and middle school settings, but it's nothing "new" at high schools in the Bay Area, and certainly nothing new at colleges. Harvard, Stanford, Chicago, Yale, Princeton... you-name-it-elite-university, all have had Mandarin in place for decades upon decades. Oh, wait, you didn't get it because they called it "Chinese"? Hmmm... Then now you see why educated Chinese people are confused by your confusion.
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